The Milwaukee Brewers moved one step closer to their first ever World Series title on Monday night, taking a 3-0 series lead with a dominant 10-1 win.
That’s the short version of the story. The long version? The Tampa Bay Rays will be kicking themselves over a disastrous top of the fifth inning, and historians will one day use a clip of that inning, and the entire 2026 Brewers’ postseason run for that matter, as proof of how powerful luck is in Major League Baseball.
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Game three meant the series shifted to Tampa Bay, and Tropicana Field was packed to the rafters with Rays fans and a sizable contingent of Brewers supporters. But as has typically been the case this postseason, only those in Milwaukee blue and gold had much to cheer about.
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At least defensively, the Rays put up a fight. In the top of the second, outfielder Chandler Simpson made a tremendous running catch in the left field corner, crashing into the fence to rob Sal Frelick of a hit. Then catcher Nick Fortes caught Garrett Mitchell trying to steal second base to end the inning. It was all downhill from there.
In the third inning, the Milwaukee superteam machine kicked into high gear. Jackson Chourio started things off with a ground ball single. Jake Bauers followed with a walk. That’s when the Brewers’ incredible penchant for outperforming on batting average on balls in play reared its gigantic head yet again.
Christian Yelich popped up a 71 mph blooper that fell in for an RBI single. William Contreras followed with another 79 mph blooper that fell in to drive in the second run of the game.
Still, a 2-0 game in the third inning wouldn’t normally mean that much, but the Brewers had Robert Gasser on the mound. Who’s Robert Gasser you might be wondering? Well, essentially the epitome of a league average pitcher, someone who had a 4.27 “expected” ERA in the regular season, then turned into a Cy Young candidate in the playoffs. Because baseball.
Gasser entered his game three start with just one run allowed in the playoffs, but the Rays couldn’t muster even that on Monday night. Rarely getting swings and misses, Gasser relied on his best friend in October: the opposing team having exceptionally poor luck on batted balls put in play. Prior to Monday, opposing hitters had just a .185 BABIP against him. Then he went six shutout innings with just three strikeouts and only one hit allowed. How? Because the Rays had an .071 BABIP. Gasser will likely end his postseason with just seven hits on 55 balls put in play, an incredible .127 batting average allowed, when league average is around .300.
Gasser’s start was the first time a lefty had gone six shutout innings while facing the minimum number of hitters in the World Series since Sandy Koufax.
Next time you want your favorite team to acquire the big name starting pitcher in free agency or at the trade deadline, just remember that one of the most effective starters on the team that won the World Series was Robert Gasser. That he did something that hadn’t been done in the World Series by a lefty since one of the greatest pitchers in the history of the sport. In large part because of BABIP. There’s no luck in baseball, because everything must have an explanation, no matter how absurd.
Gasser didn’t need much support, obviously, but the Brewers unstoppable offense provided it anyway. In the fifth inning, Milwaukee put together one of the most absurd innings you’ll ever see, and a near-perfect reminder of the immense amount of variance and randomness inherent in baseball.
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It started innocently enough, with Chourio once again singling with one out. Jake Bauers flew out for the second out, then Christian Yelich walked to put runners at first and second. Then, the play that will haunt Rays fans forever.
William Contreras grounded one in the hole between second and third, and third baseman Junior Caminero went to second base for the force out, unable to see that he had plenty of time to get Contreras at first. But Yelich beat the throw out, loading the bases for Brice Turang. Then, the floodgates opened.
Turang hit a grounder to short that Taylor Walls couldn’t make the play on, scoring two. Then Garrett Mitchell slapped another single through the infield, directly where the shortstop typically plays. 5-0 Milwaukee. Cooper Pratt followed with a grounder that somehow clipped the foul line for a double, making it 7-0. Sal Frelick hit a soft line drive that fell in to left field to make it 8-0. David Hamilton, having an incredible postseason after a career of being a very bad hitter, drove in the ninth run of the game with a single. Finally, Jackson Chourio added his fourth hit of the game and second of the inning to make it 10-0. Why not?
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That fifth inning was the first eight-run inning in World Series history. The Brewers went 9-18 with runners in scoring position, had a .471 BABIP and 16 hits against a typically strong Rays pitching staff. Tampa’s BABIP? .130. That’s only half of it. Per the league’s Statcast page, Milwaukee’s expected batting average in the game was .254. Their actual batting average was .390. Tampa’s expected batting average was .236, and their actual was .107. And that’s been Milwaukee’s luck all postseason.
The Rays added a meaningless garbage time run in the bottom of the ninth, but Milwaukee takes a commanding 3-0 series lead, and is well on their way to the organization’s first ever championship. Potentially as soon as Tuesday night’s game four.
Should the Brewers close it out with a fully rested bullpen, they’d become the first team in the history of the sport to sweep both the NLCS and World Series. They’re 10-1 in the playoffs thus far, with a chance to go 11-1 and win ten of nine straight to win a title. Baseball-ruining superteam indeed.
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Not all of these results are down to luck, of course, and it’s hardly a criticism of the Brewers’ team or players to say they’ve had fortune on their side in the playoffs. Every team that wins the playoff tournament in Major League Baseball has luck go their way. The Dodgers in 2024 and 2025 had plenty of breaks, as did the Rangers in 2023 and Astros in 2022. And the Braves in 2021 and so on.
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But there’s an inescapable conclusion from this World Series, and the whole postseason, as a matter of fact: there is no way to “ruin” baseball. Or build a superteam. Or guarantee a championship. Because at the end of the day, the gaps between teams are so small that a few bounces either way over a short series can, and often does, determine the outcome. Having a rotation filled with Cy Young level pitchers is great and all, except that when it comes down to it, Robert Gasser can become Sandy Koufax over 15 innings. There’s no way to predict who will get hot, who will be cold, and which teams will have luck on their side. Which is what baseball has always been, and always will be. No matter how much fake complaining owners do.
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